Document Type : نامه به سردبیر
Authors
1 PhD student, Health Services Management, Research Center for Modeling in Health, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Health Services Management, Futures Studies Institute Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran, and member of Health Technology Assessment Committee, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
nowadays, Health authorities are faced with different environmental, social, cultural, economical and political threats. Emerging and re-emerging diseases, changing life style, changing weather and other problems threat people’s health. The correct way to overcome these problems is to study their emerging trend, formation and development and also identifying their potential effects on society’s health. These measures convert health problems to an opportunity to promote people’s health (1). Futures studies through build on ideas and views can be very helpful. Futures studies are divided into Extrapolative methods (i.e. trend analysis, time series, regression, econometrics and simulation modeling), Exploratory methods (i.e. morphological analysis, relevance trees, mind mapping and futures wheels), Modeling (i.e. analogy analysis, technological sequence analysis, stakeholder analysis and structural analysis), Scenarios, Participatory methods (i.e. Delphi technique, crossimpact analysis and scanning and focus groups) and Normative methods (i.e. backcasting)(1). The studies of futures wheel have introduced this method as a useful method for developing futures scenarios. The most use of this method had been in academic studies, so that students can visualize the consequences of trends (2). In a study by Haas and Martin, this method used for group thinking, so that group members think systematically about the future consequences of a decision (3). In other study, future wheel has been used for forecasting occupational health future (4). Future studies are becoming more and more important and many Iranian researchers have noticed this importance. For example, through a simple internet search can see many numbers of Grounded theory studies that has been done by Iranian researchers (5). Although future wheel studies have many similarity with grounded theory studies and have many applications, but has absorbed a little attention. Future wheel can be very useful baseline method for thinking, systematic study and application of other future studies techniques. Through careful examination can identify that both future wheel and grounded theory studies state one concept through different ways. Future wheel method study future intelligently and develop strategies for minimizing risks and reduction of crisis effects (4). Glenn stated that future wheel is a brainstorming method that organizes ideas of future(6). According to Glenn, the futures wheel is most commonly used to: 1- Think through possible impacts of current trends or potential future events 2- Organize thoughts about future events or trends 3- Show complex interrelationships Future wheel method leads to the causes and solutions through research question and allow researchers to identify elementary and secondary results of events (Fig 1). By use of future wheel, researchers can identify probable opportunities and problems, new markets, products and services and also assess different tactics and strategies. In grounded theory, sampling and questioning continue until saturation, so that new samples do not add new insights. In this time, the researcher does not discover new topics (7). In future wheel too, brainstorming continue until participants intellectual efforts do not identify new topics. In other words, in future wheel and grounded theory, we reach to a point that there is no new view point, so that we can start the main and final step of study: theory development in grounded theory method and explaining the causes and solutions in future wheel method. Both of methods present new solutions for the future. Grounded theory reach from data to theory inductively but future wheel reach from research question to the causes deductively. Health care sector is not stranger with future wheel method, so that when health center or hospital experts gather to study different future aspects of a problem through brainstorming and present probable solutions, in fact they have used future wheel method unconsciously and unscientifically. Conclusion: health care authorities through acquaintance with future wheel studies can study the future of current trends and prevent its consequences. Future wheel method can identify investment bases and prevent wasting of national capital.
)